2036 Atlantic hurricane season (GaryKJR)
Seasonal forecasts Season summary The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, 2036 and officially ended on November 30, 2036. It was a near average season in which thirteen tropical and/or subtropical cyclones formed. All of these designated cyclones reached tropical storm intensity, though only seven reached at least Category 1 hurricane intensity. Of these seven storms, three — Debby, Gordon, and Leslie — reached at least Category 3 hurricane intensity. Two of the main factors that influenced the season's final outcome were the persistence of a neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and an unusually active West African Monsoon (WAM), which led to the development of more tropical waves than normal. However, many of these tropical waves failed to develop. In total, the tropical/subtropical cyclones of the 2036 season caused 29 deaths and $14.84 billion in damage; the vast majority of the damage was caused by Hurricane Leslie. While the first tropical or subtropical cyclone of the season usually forms after its official beginning on June 1, the first named storm of the 2036 season, Tropical Storm Abraham, formed eleven days before this date. The formation of Abraham made the 2036 season the third consecutive Atlantic hurricane season to feature a pre-season tropical or subtropical cyclone. After a nearly two-month-long lull in activity that began after Abraham dissipated on May 25, Tropical Storm Beverly, a relatively short-lived tropical cyclone, formed on July 13 and made landfall in far western Louisiana, causing $900,000 in damage. Beverly was the only tropical/subtropical cyclone that formed in July of 2036. In August, four tropical/subtropical cyclones (Chris, Debby, Ernesto, and Francine) developed. Debby was the most intense tropical cyclone of the season, peaking as a strong Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph (240 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 925 mbar (27.32 inHg). The following month, September, was the most active month of the season. Six tropical/subtropical cyclones — Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, and Leslie — formed within the bounds of the month. Leslie, the final storm of September, was the deadliest and most damaging storm of the season; it caused 13 deaths and $14.3 billion in damage. Unusually, no tropical or subtropical cyclones developed in October, though Leslie formed in late September and lasted into October. The final storm of the season, Subtropical Storm Milton, formed on December 5 and dissipated on December 9. Milton was the first tropical/subtropical cyclone to form in the North Atlantic in the month of December since Tropical Depression Thirteen of 2031. Storms Tropical Storm Abraham On May 17, a Central American Gyre (CAG) spawned a large area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Located amid marginally favorable environmental conditions, the disturbance organized slowly as it drifted westward along the periphery of a ridge of high pressure centered over Cuba. At 06:00 UTC on May 20, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) classified it as Tropical Depression One. Six hours later, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Abraham; this decision was supported by scatterometer data and surface observations from northeastern Nicaragua that showed that the storm had maximum sustained winds of around 50 mph (85 km/h). Very shortly thereafter, Abraham made landfall near Prinzapolka, Nicaragua. Due to interaction with the mountainous terrain of Central America, Abraham weakened back to a tropical depression at 06:00 UTC on May 21. While it nearly degenerated into a remnant low over Central America as its low-level circulation became elongated and somewhat ill-defined, Abraham immediately began to organize again after it entered the Caribbean Sea again at around 00:00 UTC on May 22. By 06:00 UTC that day it had strengthened back into a tropical storm. After this, Abraham continued to intensify until reaching its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 987 mbar (29.15 inHg) at 12:00 UTC on May 23. Abraham held this intensity for around 6 hours before starting to weaken due to increasing mid-level northerly wind shear in its vicinity. Late on May 24, Abraham made landfall near Inglis, Florida as a weakening tropical depression. Twelve hours later, Abraham degenerated into a remnant low while located approximately 50 miles (80 kilometers) south-southeast of Savannah, Georgia. The remnants of Abraham fully dissipated on May 26. to put impacts here, note for later because I'm terribly forgetful. Tropical Storm Beverly Tropical Storm Chris Hurricane Debby Tropical Storm Ernesto Hurricane Francine On August 19, a tropical wave exited the west coast of Africa. The wave traveled generally westward, organizing little as a result of abundant dry air and unfavorable upper-level winds. By August 25, however, as atmospheric conditions in its immediate vicinity had become much more favorable for tropical cyclogenesis, the wave's structure began to improve and its convective activity increased. At 12:00 UTC on August 27, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) classified the system as Tropical Depression Six after visible satellite imagery confirmed that it possessed a closed low-level circulation; at the time, the storm was located approximately 25 miles (40 kilometers) east-southeast of Little Inagua Island. Hurricane Gordon Hurricane Helene Hurricane Isaac Tropical Storm Joyce Hurricane Kirk Hurricane Leslie On September 19, the remnants of Hurricane Isaac merged with an upper-level low located between Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands. The new system began to travel northwestward as a result of a ridge of high pressure centered over Bermuda. Due to strong vertical wind shear, the system largely failed to develop persistent deep convection; the disturbance's broad nature also made it more difficult for it to organize at a steady pace. However, wind shear began to relax as the disturbance approached Florida. Because of this, the system began to organize, though at a relatively slow rate. The system only started to organize at a faster pace after it exited Florida early on September 25. At 00:00 UTC on September 26, the disturbance was classified as Subtropical Depression Twelve after a reconnaissance mission into the system proved that a closed low-level center had developed. As a result of the depression being located in an area of light steering currents between two competing ridges of high pressure ⁠— one located near Bermuda, the other located over the Midwestern United States ⁠— its forward speed began to decrease as it meandered generally eastward. Despite being quite disorganized, with numerous vortices orbiting around a mean center and fairly shallow convection, the depression intensified into a subtropical storm by 12:00 UTC on September 26. Consequently, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) named the system Leslie. Six hours after becoming a subtropical storm, Leslie transitioned into a tropical cyclone; this decision was based upon the consolidation of the aforementioned vortices into a single, more defined center and reconnaissance data that showed that Leslie had a thermal structure more characteristic of a tropical cyclone. Around this time, Leslie began to travel northward as well. Leslie, while located within a generally favorable environment — featuring sea surface temperatures around 29 degrees Celsius (84 degrees Fahrenheit), an exceptionally cold upper atmosphere, and little vertical wind shear, struggled with the entrainment of continental dry air into its circulation because of its large size. Therefore, it remained poorly organized for some time after transitioning into a tropical cyclone. In spite of this, Leslie continued to strengthen. By 18:00 UTC on September 27, it had intensified into a hurricane. While intensification before this point had been relatively measured, Leslie began to organize more rapidly as it mixed out the previously mentioned dry air, which was inhibiting significant convective development. Leslie strengthened into a major hurricane at 18:00 UTC on September 28; by this time, it had turned southwestward and was approaching northeastern Florida. At 00:00 UTC on September 29, Leslie reached peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph (205 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 944 mbar (27.88 inHg). Three hours later, Leslie made landfall near Crescent Beach, Florida with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (195 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 945 mbar (27.91 inHg). Due to land interaction, Leslie weakened rapidly after landfall as its forward speed slowed considerably. However, Leslie began to accelerate northeastward early on September 30 as a result of the presence of southwesterly flow ahead of a frontal system located over the Appalachian Mountains. Leslie exited Florida at around 13:00 UTC on September 30. By then, it had weakened to a tropical storm. Leslie continued to accelerate northeastward for the next several days; for much of this time, it paralleled the coast of the Carolinas. At 12:00 UTC on October 2, Leslie merged with the aforementioned frontal system. Leslie caused extensive damage in the southeastern United States; much of this damage occurred in Florida. Storm surge from Leslie reached 14 ft (4.3 m) along some portions of the northeastern Florida coast, causing extensive beach erosion and washing away a number of homes. In Sawgrass, three people were killed after they were swept away by the storm surge. Leslie caused severe flooding in northeastern Florida, with the cities of Jacksonville and St. Augustine being the most heavily affected. In St. Augustine, which is located in St. Johns County around 10 miles (16 kilometers) from where Leslie made landfall, Leslie's strong winds, coupled with a 12 ft (3.7 m) storm surge, destroyed 98 houses and damaged around 920. The Cathedral Basilica of St. Augustine, an important landmark in the city, was initially thought to have been irreparably damaged by the storm. While this was not true, the building was still severely damaged. Five people were killed in and around St. Augustine. The majority of these fatalities were a direct result of the flooding that Leslie caused in the city; from 00:00 UTC on September 29 to 00:00 UTC on October 1, 23.43 in (1.95 ft) of rain fell in St. Augustine. It is estimated that over $5.9 billion in damages occurred in St. Augustine alone. In Jacksonville, extensive property damage occurred as around 3 ft (36 in) of floodwater inundated homes and businesses in the area. Strong winds from Leslie felled numerous trees in the area as well; one person was killed when a tree fell on their parked car. Much of the rain that fell in Jacksonville fell within a short period of time; therefore, flash flooding was a major issue as well. Around $5.4 billion in damages occurred in the Jacksonville metropolitan area (excluding St. Johns County). A large portion of the damage wrought by Leslie occurred because of river flooding. The St. Johns River at Jacksonville crested at 7.13 ft (85.56 in) early on October 1, setting a record for the highest crest of the river at that point in recorded history. As a result of this high water level, various communities along the St. Johns River, such as Fruit Cove, Green Cove Springs, and Lakeside, experienced significant flooding damage. Portions of major roads such as Florida Road 17 and Interstate 295 were washed away by floodwaters. In Gainesville, 12.93 in (1.08 ft) of rain fell, causing major flooding and significantly damaging hundreds of buildings. 2 people were killed by flash flooding in the city of Waldo. Around $2.9 billion in damages occurred in Alachua County, where Gainesville and Waldo are located, Bradford County, and Union County alone. In Volusia County, an EF2 tornado, which was associated with one of Leslie's rainbands, touched down near North De Land and lifted near the junction of Florida Road 44 and Interstate 4. This tornado caused 1 death, 4 injuries, and $1.1 million in damages. In neighboring Lake County, several roads were inundated by floodwaters and minor property damage occurred. Isolated flash flooding occurred in Marion County. The effects of Leslie were much less widespread in Georgia and the Carolinas than they were in Florida. Minor flooding occurred in and around the cities of Savannah, Georgia, and Charleston, South Carolina. In South Carolina, 23,000 customers were left without electricity; many of these people lost their electricity as a result of trees that fell on power lines. Myrtle Beach, a popular tourist destination, closed many of their beaches due to the risk of rip currents and the generally inclement weather that Leslie brought. In Morehead City, North Carolina, one person was killed as a result of rip currents in the area. In total, Leslie caused 13 deaths and $14.3 billion in damages. Subtropical Storm Milton On December 1, a non-tropical area of low pressure formed in the open Atlantic Ocean. The next day, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began monitoring the system for potential tropical cyclogenesis. Despite the presence of moderate easterly wind shear in its vicinity, the system organized at a fairly consistent pace. At 12:00 UTC on December 5, the NHC designated the disturbance as Subtropical Depression Thirteen; the system was not classified as a purely tropical cyclone because of its co-location with an upper-level low. Twelve hours later, the depression strengthened into Subtropical Storm Milton. Over the next several days, Milton began to execute a clockwise loop as it intensified slowly. At 18:00 UTC on December 7, Milton reached its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 996 mbar (29.41 inHg). As a result of an abrupt increase in wind shear, Milton quickly weakened thereafter. By 06:00 UTC on December 9, Milton had degenerated into a remnant low. The remnants of Milton completely dissipated the next day. Storm names The names listed below were used to name storms that formed in the Northern Atlantic during 2036. Names that were not used during the season are marked in gray. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2042 season. This is the same list used in the 2030 season with the exception of the names Abraham and Beverly, which replaced Alberto and Becky, respectively. Retirement On April 2, 2037, at the 59th session of the RA IV hurricane committee, the World Meteorological Organization retired the name Leslie ''from its rotating naming lists due to the number of deaths and amount of damage it caused, and it will not be used again for another Atlantic hurricane. ''Leslie ''will be replaced with ''Lucille for the 2042 season. The List for 2042 Season effects Category:GaryKJR's Future Atlantic hurricane seasons